Teays Valley, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

401
FXUS61 KRLX 260751
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
351 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
353 AM Update...

Models are more in range and agreement with the upcoming severe
weather and flooding potential. More details and specifics
below.

135 AM Update...

Aviation discussion update for ~06z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday into
Tuesday. Flash flooding may be a concern Monday night through
Tuesday with rounds of heavy rainfall.

2) Isolated showers and non-severe thunderstorms will be possible
each afternoon behind this system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong
or even severe, are becoming increasingly more likely late
Monday afternoon and evening with a fast moving, mid to upper
level disturbance arriving to the area. Models, specifically
the latest NAM3k, have backed off a bit on a morning complex of
storms across the coalfields, but this solution may still be
probable depending on a weakening MCS that models show
traversing the Ohio River Valley west to east very early Monday.

Sufficient and robust CAPE (2,000-4,000 J/Kg) is modeled to
build Monday afternoon depending on what happens early Monday
and if the atmosphere can recover. Latest guidance shows
convection firing across Ohio between 4 and 6 PM on Monday
following a northwest to southeast motion, depending on the
location of a cold front. The main risk will be damaging winds,
but the threat for a tornado or two across Ohio or western West
Virginia is present with the ample CAPE, 40-60 knots of
effective shear, 250MB jet streak, and 100-300 m^2/s^-2 of
helicity. The window for greatest severe potential currently
looks to be between 4 PM and 10 PM on Monday.

The threat for severe weather continues overnight Monday into
Tuesday morning, but ultimately a transition to flash flooding
will be the main concern as moisture transport from the
southwest creates PWATs between 1.75" and 2.50". Despite a more
progressive typology of these showers and thunderstorms, the
listed factors will lead to very efficient rainfall rates.

Current guidance has between 0.50" and 1.50" of rainfall
falling across most of the area Monday night through Tuesday.
Amounts around or above 2 inches could be picked up across
portions of the southern coalfields and along the mountains,
this includes some areas that already received devastating
flooding not even a week ago.

This set up does not seem to warrant the same alarm bells for
catastrophic flooding as the previous event, but heavy rainfall
is looking to be of concern and will require full attention the
next few model runs.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Conditions quiet down some on Wednesday as high pressure remains
stiff and unwavering across the southern CONUS. Our weather will
be much drier for the remainder of the week, outside of chances
for isolated showers and thunderstorms during peak heating each
afternoon. Models show rounds of mid to upper level disturbances
that will cross each day providing more confidence in diurnal
chances for convection. However, severe weather is not likely
due to lack of strong enough support aloft with these weak waves
of vorticity.

Keeping an eye on the weekend as another very strong system
looks to take aim at the forecast area, but details could change
drastically between now and then.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Another round of low stratus and patchy valley fog is possible
this morning provided passing cloud cover and isolated showers
do not intervene. Currently seeing BKN to OVC stratocu
traversing the area with CIGs between 3,000 and 6,500 feet AGL.
There does appear to be some clearing across OH and northern WV.
These areas will stand the chance to see some patchy valley fog
provided they stay clear. This would be for sites PKB and CKB.

Otherwise, low stratus is probable for the mountains impacting
BKW, EKN, and maybe CRW. IFR or lower is possible with any fog
or low stratus formation. VFR conditions are expected to resume
by ~13z. SCT to BKN CIGs between 3,000 and 10,000 feet AGL are
forecast for Sunday.

Winds will be calm to light and variable this morning. They will
then pick up out of the WNW later this morning, but will be
light between 4 and 7 knots. Gusts up to 15 knots across the
higher ridges are possible.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW until ~13z, HIGH after ~13z

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions with fog/stratus this morning may
vary from the forecast. Some locations may not see any fog or
low stratus when it is forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 07/26/26
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions are possible with river valley fog Monday morning,
and also with showers and thunderstorms late Monday through
Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC